Our Research Philosophy

This blog is part of Congrolej's focused research on small and mid-sized companies. Our focus shall largely be on companies which we believe have the potential for explosive value creation. One approach we shall continuously follow is that of a marketer: using the intelligence of the masses to predict the future. We constantly interact with people at all levels in all spaces to gauge the current, collecting nuggets, and gleaning out noise.

A common thread we have seen in all the high value creating companies is Environment Management - the capability to manage relationships with various stakeholders including official machinery (bureaucrats and politicians), demanding customers, small businesses in unorganized segment, unpredictable vendors, and so on in a profitable and sustainable manner. The Environment Management philosophy may seem at odds with the Consumer Monopoly or tolls bridge thesis of value investor club, but fundamentally both provide a company a leg-up both in terms of time and costs over competitors. In an Indian context, Environment Management capabilities are very important to grow in leaps.

For a full coverage of our research philosophy and experience, please read A Marketer's Approach to Business Analysis

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Investment Update

In May, we had noted that we may make additional investments based on our recommendations if Sensex touches 15,000-16,000 levels. Sensex has meandered between 16,000 - 17,000 for some time now, but more importantly our highly recommended scrips including Venky's and Confidence's came down by more than 40-50% making them very attractive.

Accordingly, we decided to allocate a further Rs 12lacs for Confidence Petroleum (@ Rs 9 per share) and Rs 8lacs for Venky's India (@ Rs 400 per share). We still keep Rs 10lacs cash to benefit from any unprecedented fall in Sensex.

Dhanuka Agritech and Amar Remedies have posted smart gains despite fall in Sensex and hence our net investment in six companies (Rs 24lacs) still sits pretty at Rs 52lacs (a fall of just Rs 4lacs or 7% since early June as against Sensex's fall of 18%).  Amar Remedies is at a level where we can consider partial withdrawal if it goes up by 10-15%.

In view of a nightmarish situation in Infrastructure segment as well as changing equation in post-Anna Hazare era, we downgrade our outlook on Om Metals from Bullish to Average and hence are refraining from upping our investment. Yet, we feel substantial value remains locked-in in the stock.